2013 Economic Forecast

Almost every year for the past 15 years, I have attended the CREW Miami’s (Commercial Real Estate Women) Economic Forecast presented by Hugh Kelly, PhD from CRE Real Estate Economics.  Hugh has been a professor at NYU’s Masters Degree Program in Real Estate Investment & Development for over 25 years.  In 2009, The Editorial Board of Real Estate Issues presented Hugh with the William S. Ballard Awards.  The honor, bestowed annually by The Counselors of Real Estate, recognizes the author whose work best exemplifies the high standards of this 35-year old professional journal, Real Estate Issues.  In other words, this man knows his stuff.  I like Hugh because he is naturally funny and can explain this complex information in terms that even I can understand.

Hugh told us that housing is no longer a drag on the economy but now it is a push.  He said that existing home sales are back to where they should be.  It will be about 2-1/2 years before interest rates begin to rise.  Here are Hugh’s 2013 Economic Predications for the U.S.:

• 2.16 million jobs will be created in 2013
• Unemployment will drop to 6.9%
• 10 Year Treasuries will be at 2.25% by December 31, 2013
• The U.S. will have 950,000 new housing starts in 2013
• The U.S. will have 5.15 million home sales in 2013 with prices increasing 10%
• Commercial real estate sales volume will increase 16% with sales of $300 billion.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average will be up 7% to 14,100 by year end.

It will be interesting to revisit these predictions in 12 months.   As you will see in the Events section, everyone has polished their crystal ball because January is a flurry of forecasting events.  What is your forecast for 2013?